UK Could Have Smoked Its Last Cigarette By 2051, Research Suggests

It is expected that Brits will ditch cigarettes completely by 2051.

According to the Mirror, the last fag to be smoked in England will be in Derby and this will take place in 2050.

Researchers have made these predictions based on current quitting trends which has led them to estimate that the UK's current 7.4 million smokers will shrink to zero in 30 years.

Smoking is predicted to be a thing of the past by 2051. Credit: PA
Smoking is predicted to be a thing of the past by 2051. Credit: PA

Apparently, Bristol is set to become the first area to quit the habit by 2024, followed by York and Wokingham, Berkshire, in 2026.

Experts have said that Buckinghamshire, Bournemouth and Milton Keynes will be smoke-free by 2028 but Southampton will continue puffing away until 2049.

The predictions have been commissioned by tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris International with the help of market analysis Frontier Economics.

The UK's last cigarette will be smoked by 2051 according to experts. Credit: PA
The UK's last cigarette will be smoked by 2051 according to experts. Credit: PA

The report reads: "Our central forecast is for the Government to meet its smoke-free target - to reduce smoking prevalence to 5% or below of England's adult population - around 2040. This forecast is based on a continuation of current above-inflation excise increases and known regulatory interventions.

"If smoking then continued to decline at the same rate after 2040, it would reach 0% in around 2051.

"Smoking is in long-run decline, but since 2012 it has declined at more than twice the rate seen between 1993 and 2011. Smokers switching to e-cigarettes appear to have made a material contribution to that recent trend."

People have already begun to stop smoking with the help of e-cigarettes. Credit: PA
People have already begun to stop smoking with the help of e-cigarettes. Credit: PA

Mark MacGregor, of Philip Morris International, told the Mirror: "There are more alternative options than ever to help people give up cigarettes for good."

But the report, which looked at continuing trends, suggested: "Based on recent trends, 9% of Local Authorities will not have reached smoke-free status by 2040.

"In 2029 47% of Local Authorities will not have achieved a prevalence rate of 5%. Therefore even though the country as a whole may be classified as smoke-free there will still be a lot of further work needed.

"A separate group of Local Authorities will not reach 0% prevalence until after 2050."

Progress has been made over the last few years, with the UK government making it illegal to have cigarettes on show in shops back in 2015, in a bid to crack down on the habit.

Featured Image Credit: PA

Rebecca Shepherd

Rebecca Shepherd is a Journalist at LADbible. She graduated from the University of Central Lancashire with a First Class BA in Journalism. Becky previously worked as Chief Reporter at Cavendish Press, supplying news and feature stories to national newspapers and women's magazines.

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