Nintendo Switch Expected To Last Until 2024, Says Sales Forecast Expert

Anyone on the fence about picking up a Nintendo Switch may be swayed by one expert's prediction that the console - launched in 2017 - has another good five years in it, before it sees its support dry up.

That's the verdict of Media Create's Atsushi Hosokawa, who when interviewed by Bloomberg about his business - providing data to clients, enabling them to make fully informed bets on commodities, currencies and more - said that Nintendo had piqued the interest of several of his investors.

Sales of the Switch actually fell slightly short of Nintendo's expectations in 2018, but with strong releases like Pokémon: Let's Go and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate giving it a year-end boost, the console is still performing incredibly well. As of 31 December 2018, some 32 million Switches had been sold, worldwide.

Nintendo Switch / Credit: Nintendo
Nintendo Switch / Credit: Nintendo

Hosokawa predicts that the Switch's third (fiscal) year on sale will see significant growth, however - and share prices in Nintendo are up in 2019 compared to where they were this time last year, which does point to an uptick in its fortunes. And beyond that? Just how long will the Switch be around?

"We expect its life-cycle to be seven years," Hosokawa told Bloomberg, which takes the console to 2024 - which feels like an awful long way away right now, in terms of just what the gaming world will be like, then.

We know that Xbox is planning disc-free consoles, and to roll out Xbox Live onto other platforms, including Switch. Sony will obviously have an as-yet-unrevealed console out by then - indeed, it may have been and gone. We just don't know.

Related: Five Reasons Not To Bin Your 3DS Just Yet

A seven-year lifespan for the Switch sounds impressive right now, and gives new adopters plenty of time to fall in love with the hybrid console (or a second model of it, which is rumoured to be revealed in 2019). But it's a long way behind the shelf-life of the Wii.

Nintendo's (sometimes) motion-controlled comeback launched in 2006, and the range wasn't completely discontinued until the Wii Mini bowed out in 2017 - an impressive 11 years. The company's current handheld-proper, the 3DS, came out in 2011 and has been promised support throughout 2019 - although whether or not it will survive into 2020 remains to be seen.

What do you see as a good lifespan for a console? Did you know that new models of the SEGA Mega Drive are still selling today, in Brazil, 31 years after that console debuted? (In 2016, it sold about as many units there as the PS4.) Let us know your thoughts - we're on Facebook and Twitter.

Featured Image Credit: Nintendo

Mike Diver

Head of Content at GAMINGbible. Ex-editor of VICE Gaming and co-founder of Waypoint. Former writer/consultant for BBC's The Gaming Show. Former contributor to Edge, Eurogamer, Kotaku, PCGamesN, Official PlayStation Magazine, gamesTM. Author of 'Indie Games: The Complete Introduction to Indie Gaming' (2016) and 'How to Be a Professional Gamer' (2016). New book, 'Retro Gaming: A Byte-Sized History of Video Games', coming in 2019. Contact: [email protected]

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