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Exit Poll Predicts Conservative Majority In 2019 UK General Election

Exit Poll Predicts Conservative Majority In 2019 UK General Election

It's 10pm, the voting has finished, and the first exit poll coming out of the 2019 UK General Election is predicting a Conservative majority of 86.

The forecasted numbers in a poll carried out by ITV, BBC, Sky and Ipsos Mori were 368 seats for the Tories against 191 for Labour.

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More that 20,000 people were asked at over 140 polling stations.

The exit poll, whilst not fool proof, is the best indication we're going to get for a few hours, at least until the hordes of volunteers around the UK have finished tallying up the millions of votes cast at across the 650 constituencies.

This exit poll represents a survey of thousands of voters cast right after they've put their cross in their desired box. It's based on 144 constituencies are considered to be democratically representative of the country as a whole.

So, that means that it is a mix of rural and urban areas across England, Scotland, and Wales and the chosen seats are weighed slightly towards those marginal communities.

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn casting his vote earlier. Credit: PA
Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn casting his vote earlier. Credit: PA
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To keep things consistent, they choose the same places each time, by and large, then position pollsters at stations to pick up on every 10th voter or so.

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The Conservative Party Wins 2019 General Election With A Majority
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The Conservative Party Wins 2019 General Election With A Majority

They aren't asked to speak their choice out loud in the hope that this makes the survey more accurate.

Now, it's worth remembering that these exit polls aren't always correct. However, they're surely the best indicator we've got until the counting is done.

In 2017, they predicted that the Conservatives would be the largest party, but didn't say that there would be a hung Parliament.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson outside his polling station. Credit: PA
Prime Minister Boris Johnson outside his polling station. Credit: PA

Back in 1992, two separate exit polls predicted no overall majority in the House of Commons, but John Major went and won the election, albeit at a loss to his majority.

What we're getting at here is that whilst they make mistakes, and aren't a faultless method for identifying which way the country as voted, it'll have to do for now.

Now begins a race - usually between Sunderland and Newcastle - to see who can get their votes tallied up the quickest.

Come tomorrow morning, we'll have a bigger and more certain picture of which way the political wind is blowing.

And now we wait...

Featured Image Credit: PA

Topics: uk news, Interesting, politics

Tom Wood

Tom Wood is a LADbible journalist and Twin Peaks enthusiast. Despite having a career in football cut short by a chronic lack of talent, he managed to obtain degrees from both the University of London and Salford. According to his French teacher, at the weekends he mostly likes to play football and go to the park with his brother. Contact Tom on [email protected]