NASA issues major update on chances 'city-killer' asteroid has of hitting Earth in seven years
There's been some huge news from NASA about the infamous asteroid 2024 YR4.
You may recall that the celestial object had a small but worrying chance of being on a collision course for our planet in 2032.
The peak percentage reached a chilling 3.1 percent, or a one-in-32 chance, which no doubt had people working out how much a bomb shelter would cost to build.
An Oxford University Professor of Astrophysics also gave his professional opinion on what could happen if the asteroid hit Earth, comparing it to the harrowing Tunguska event.
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If it were to make contact with the Earth, it was estimated that it would cause an impact equivalent to eight billion kilograms of dynamite.
But after reaching the top of NASA's asteroid risk list, the chances of YR4, which is estimated to measure 130-300 feet (40–90 meters) across, hitting Earth has dropped dramatically.
According to the latest calculations from NASA, the likelihood has dropped down to 0.0027 percent, or one in 37,037.
You can start breathing easy again.
If that wasn't enough reassurance, the European Space Agency (ESA) carried out their own calculations and found that the chances were even lower, at 0.001 percent, or one in 100,000.
Both space agencies predict that the asteroid will pass our planet on 22 December, 2032.
NASA have now stated on their website: "As more observations of the asteroid were collected, and as that data was added to its orbit calculations, 2024 YR4 was deemed to have no significant chance of Earth impact in 2032 and beyond."
With a 99.9963 percent chance of the object passing by without any drama, it looks like there might not be much to worry about after all.
Based on the latest information obtained through the use of the revolutionary James Webb Space Telescope, scientists have graded the asteroid at level zero on the Torino scale.
This is the system used to categorise potential Earth impact events since 1999, as any event with less than a one in 1,000 is placed into this band.
It was originally classed as level three when it sat around the two to three percent mark, with the level explaining: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to level zero.
"Attention by public and public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away."
Richard Binzel, the creator of the Torino scale and Professor of Planetary Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), revealed that an earlier calculation that placed the asteroid at a 0.005 percent chance already meant there was a 'impact probability [of] zero'.
NASA added in a statement: “While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity [for study]."
Joshua Nair