Odds for next UK Prime Minister as Keir Starmer could be forced to resign

Keir Starmer is currently facing pressure from his government to resign – but who will replace the embattled Labour leader?

Following Labour's catastrophic performance in recent English local elections, which saw the party lose 1,496 councillors to Reform and The Green Party, as well as a decimation of the party in both Scotland and Wales.

Between 78 and 83 MPs (according to various sources) from Starmer's party have called for his resignation, including figures such as former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and six ministerial aides.

Meanwhile, the BBC is reporting that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has asked the Prime Minister to provide a timeline for quitting, while ministers such as Yvette Cooper, John Healey and David Lammy spoke privately to the Prime Minister on Monday.

The Prime Minister is facing increased calls from his MPs to resign (Richard Pohle - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, Housing, communities and local government minister Miatta Fahnbulleh, who is believed to be an ally of Ed Miliband, stepped down from her role earlier today, urging Starmer to 'do the right thing' for the country and step down.

“The public does not believe that you can lead this change – and nor do I," she wrote on X.

“Therefore, I urge you to do the right thing for the country and the Party and set a timetable for an orderly transition so that a new team can deliver the change we promised the country.”

Will Keir Starmer resign as leader of the Labour Party?

Despite facing calls from MPs, Starmer has so far rejected claims to resign, telling his cabinet that the 'Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered'.

Here is his statement in full:

"As I said yesterday, I take responsibility for these election results and I take responsibility for delivering the change we promised.

"The past 48 hours have been destabilising for government and that has a real economic cost for our country and for families.

"The Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered.

"The country expects us to get on with governing. That is what I am doing and what we must do as a cabinet."

Shame he's not available for the top job (Brook Mitchell / AFP via Getty Images)

Several ministers have also come out in support of Starmer remaining in the job, with Housing Secretary Steve Reed urging MPs to 'unite' behind the Prime Minister.

Who is the favourite to replace Keir Starmer?

Ahead of a cabinet meeting later today, here are the current odds for Starmer's replacement, per Bet365:

• Andy Burnham* - 11/5
• Wes Streeting - 5/2
• Angela Rayner - 4/1
• Ed Miliband - 6/1
• Shabana Mahmood - 18/1
• Yvette Cooper - 16/1

*As the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham is not an MP, meaning that while theoretically possible but would be extremely unlikely for him to become Prime Minister.

According to modern constitutional conventions, the Prime Minister should be a sitting MP in order to have accountability in the House of Commons.

If Starmer were to go, what happens next? (Carl Court/Getty Images)

What happens if Keir Starmer resigns?

For a leadership challenge to be triggered, there needs to be 81 MPs who have given written support for the current Prime Minister to be removed, equalling around 20 percent of the party.

At the time of writing, the BBC states that 81 MPs have currently called for Starmer to go or set out a timeline for his resignation, while The Telegraph puts this at the higher number of 84.

However, this does not automatically trigger a leadership contest, as 81 MPs also need to publicly back a replacement candidate.

Should Starmer resign or be challenged, then leadership will then be put to a vote. Each candidate must receive 20 percent support to get their name on the ballot, which is voted on by Labour Party members and affiliated trade union supporters.

Keir Starmer’s road to resignation: a timeline

Starmer’s premiership has been controversial from the off, in a government rife with U-turns on issues like the two-child benefit cap and pensioners’ winter fuel allowance.

But this is when the writing was truly on the wall for Starmer:

20 December 2024

Starmer appoints Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US, a decision he will come to regret

28 January 2025

We didn’t know this at the time, but on this date, UK Security Vetting (UKSV) advises that Mandelson should be denied security clearance. The following day, the Foreign Office decides to ignore UKSV’s guidance.

1 July 2025

Starmer is forced into a significant U-turn on plans to cut welfare payments, and 49 MPs still vote against the amended bill. It’s the biggest rebellion of Starmer’s premiership, and exposes tensions between Labour MPs and No 10 which aren’t going to go away.

10 September 2025

Bloomberg publishes emails from Mandelson to Jeffrey Epstein advising him to ‘fight for early release’, sent in 2008, the day before he reported to jail after being convicted of soliciting prostitution from a minor.

11 September 2025

Mandelson is sacked as US ambassador. That month, the Labour Party conference is dominated by rumours that Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is looking to mount a leadership challenge.

25 January 2026

Andy Burnham is blocked from standing as an MP in the Gorton and Denton by-election, leading to further unrest within the Labour Party

30 January 2026

The US government releases the largest tranche of documents relating to Epstein so far. Emails within the files suggest Mandelson passed on sensitive government information to Epstein, and lobbied the Treasury on his behalf during his tenure as business secretary in Gordon Brown’s government. Labour MPs are furious about the revelations.

23 February 2026

Mandelson is arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office.

7 May 2026

A disastrous polling day for Labour, the worst local elections result for the party on record, losing almost 1,500 councillors in England, with Reform making huge gains.

9 May 2026

Labour MP Catherine West demands that a cabinet minister challenge Starmer for the leadership, or she will herself. She later backs down.

11 May 2026

It’s widely reported that four senior cabinet ministers, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, are telling Starmer to set out a timeline for his departure. Meanwhile, nearly 80 Labour MPs are thought to have signed Catherine West’s letter demanding Starmer resign. Starmer delivers a speech saying he’s ‘not walking away’, while admitting: “The British people are tired of a status quo that has failed them.”