The actual chances of Russia's 'plague' spreading as 200 people quarantined

The chances of a suspected plague incident in Russia spreading across the country or around the world remain low - but only if Russia is telling the truth.

Darya Shipilova, a 28-year-old researcher, fell ill and died after working at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East.

While local officials sparked fears by suggesting she died from the plague, Russian federal authorities have downplayed the incident, classifying her cause of death as ‘pneumonia of unknown etiology’.

However, infectious disease physician Dr Tyler Evans tells LADbible that he doesn’t have ‘a lot of confidence in the Russian government’.

The California-based health expert, who has been to Siberia, says: “The question is... given the context of what we're dealing with, an active war out there and whatnot, trusting what they're saying is going to be a challenge.

“First, defining is it plague? Number two, then defining an outbreak... it seems likely that it is but I don't have that laboratory confirmation.”

Why the plague is unlikely to spread

Darya Shipilova, 28, fell ill and died from ‘pneumonia of unknown etiology’ (Darya Shipilova)

Asked about the chances of the disease spreading, Evans said: “If they are being transparent, no. There's not never no. You know, in science, there's always a sort of gray space. I would say my level of risk is quite low.”

He estimated the threat to people locally at around two out of 10 and the global danger at approximately one out of 10.

“This was in a laboratory in a low densely populated area Siberia, theoretically with an infrastructure and highly trained individuals that know how to respond to something like this,” Evans added.

Why a reported 200 people are in quarantine

The Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East (AFP via Getty Images)

With at least 200 people reported to be in quarantine, it does not mean they have contracted plague. Evans stressed the important distinction between quarantine and isolation.

“Well, that's quarantine. That's not isolation. So that means that they were exposed, not that they're sick,” he said.

“So they're doing the right thing. They're doing the right thing by basically anybody that had that level of exposure, even if they had the appropriate PPE on etc. have gone through some quarantine sort of mechanism.”

Why pneumonic plague is different to the medieval Black Death plague

The pneumonic plague is unlikely to spread (Getty Stock Images)

Evans explained that plague can take three forms: bubonic, septicemic and pneumonic. Bubonic plague typically affects the lymphatic system and is commonly transmitted through fleas and rodents rather than directly between people. Septicemic plague involves the bloodstream, while pneumonic plague affects the lungs.

“The pneumonic is the one that actually can spread person to person,” Evans said, adding that it can involve ‘a very, very severe pneumonia’.

Plague is infamous for the devastation of the Black Death, but the disease did not disappear with the Middle Ages.

Evans pointed to the later plague pandemic from 1855–1960 to illustrate its historic death toll, saying: “That one was bad. That one claimed roughly 15 million lives.”

He stressed that the scale of plague today is dramatically different, adding: “This is not what we see now, but we still see one to 2,000 cases per year with roughly less than 200 deaths.”