Simulation has just predicted who'll win the World Cup and it may upset fans
The 2026 World Cup is nearly upon us and millions will be hoping for England to finally bring football home or for Scotland to pull of the mother of all shocks. But one simulation might leave them all unhappy.
The summer's festival of football gets underway on Wednesday when co-hosts Mexico take on South Africa but, with kick-off just hours away, excitement seems surprisingly subdued.
Extortionate ticket and travel costs have angered supporters, while the USA have caused controversy with their treatment of fans, players and even banned referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan.
Yet, the mood will almost certainly improve once the football gets underway.
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England are aiming to end 60 years of hurt and Thomas Tuchel's side face old foes Croatia in their opening game on June 17, while Scotland play their first World Cup match since 1998 against Haiti on June 14.
Millions of Brits will be dreaming of a miracle this summer, but an in-depth tournament simulation from the University of Reading has thrown cold water on those aspirations.
England and Scotland not predicted to win the World Cup
Economist professor James Reade has modelled every match from the newly-expanded 48-team tournament 10,000 times to determine the most likely outcome.
According to his simulation, the current holders Argentina will win the World Cup for a fourth time.
France win the silver medal in the prediction, with Lionel Messi's men defeating them in the final for a second tournament in succession.
Spain and Brazil are touted to finish in the semi-finals, with England predicted to only make it as far as the quarter-finals with a fifth place finish.
However, Reade does clarify that the gap between the top teams is so close that the Three Lions could easily outperform that prediction.
"Argentina come out on top, but what stands out most from this simulation is how tight it is at the summit," he said.
"France and Spain are virtually indistinguishable in the model, and England aren't far behind either.
"It has been 60 years since England last lifted the trophy, and the simulation suggests football could finally be coming home."
It's bad news for Scotland, though, as the model predicts they will finish 36th - below Panama, Uzbekistan and Australia - meaning it doesn't think they will make it out of their tough group also containing Brazil and Morocco.
The full rankings from the simulation are:
- Argentina
- France
- Spain
- Brazil
- England
- Portugal
- Colombia
- Netherlands
- Germany
- Uruguay
- Japan
- Croatia
- Morocco
- Belgium
- Mexico
- Ecuador
- Switzerland
- USA
- Iran
- South Korea
- Algeria
- Senegal
- Canada
- Australia
- Turkey
- Austria
- Paraguay
- Norway
- Egypt
- Sweden
- Ivory Coast
- Uzbekistan
- Tunisia
- Czech Republic
- Panama
- Scotland
- Iraq
- DR Congo
- South Africa
- Saudi Arabia
- Jordan
- New Zealand
- Qatar
- Cape Verde
- Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Ghana
- Haiti
- Curaçao
Who are the favourites to win the World Cup?
The bookies in the United Kingdom strongly disagree with Reade's simulation, with Argentina only rated as the sixth favourites to win at 9/1.
Instead, European Champions Spain are the favourites to triumph in the New Jersey final on July 19 and win yet another trophy.
They are a hair ahead of France in the odds, with England typically being rated third favourite at 13/2.
Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal and Brazil round out the top six, while odds on Scotland can be found as high as 300/1.
Daniel Murphy