Simulation has just predicted who'll win the World Cup and it may upset fans
A simulation has determined who is most likely to win the 2026 World Cup, who they'll face in the final, and how far England and Scotland will make it in the tournament.
The summer's festival of football gets underway on Thursday (11 June) when co-hosts Mexico take on South Africa. But with kick-off just a day away, excitement seems surprisingly subdued.
Extortionate ticket and travel costs have angered supporters, while the US have caused controversy with their treatment of fans, players and even banned Somalian referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan.
Yet, the mood will almost certainly improve once the football gets underway.
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England are aiming to end 60 years of hurt and Thomas Tuchel's side face old foes Croatia in their opening game on June 17, while Scotland play their first World Cup match since 1998 against Haiti on June 14.
Millions of Brits will be dreaming of a miracle this summer, but an in-depth tournament simulation from the University of Reading has thrown cold water on those aspirations.
We don't have Paul the Octopus anymore (RIP to a legend) but we do have economist professor James Reade, who has modelled every match from the newly-expanded 48-team tournament 10,000 times to determine the most likely outcome.
He's analysed each country's international matches since January 2023 to determine their attacking and defensive strength, and also builds in a home advantage factor for matches that aren't played at neutral venues.
The model estimates how many goals each team will score, who will win each group stage, and then runs through the knockout stages, including extra time and penalties, to find an ultimate winner.
England and Scotland not predicted to win the 2026 World Cup... but there is some good news
According to his simulation, the current title holders Argentina will win the World Cup for a fourth time.
Spain win the silver medal in the prediction, with Lionel Messi's men defeating them in the final for a second tournament in succession.
France and Portugal are touted to finish in the semi-finals, with England predicted to only make it as far as the quarter-finals with a fifth place finish. However, Reade does clarify that the gap between the top teams is so close that the Three Lions could easily outperform that prediction.
"Argentina come out on top, but what stands out most from this simulation is how tight it is at the summit," he said. "France and Spain are virtually indistinguishable in the model, and England aren't far behind either.
"It has been 60 years since England last lifted the trophy, and the simulation suggests football could finally be coming home."
It's bad news for Scotland, though, as the model predicts they will finish 36th - below Panama, Uzbekistan and Australia - meaning it doesn't think they will make it out of their tough group also containing Brazil and Morocco.
The full rankings from the simulation, along with each country's probability of winning, are:
- Argentina - 24%
- Spain - 13%
- France - 12%
- Portugal - 9%
- England - 9%
- Portugal - 9%
- Colombia - 5%
- Brazil - 5%
- Netherlands - 3%
- Belgium - 3%
- Croatia - 2%
- Morocco - 2%
- Uruguay - 2%
- Japan - 2%
- Switzerland - 2%
- Ecuador - 1%
- Norway - 1%
- Austria - 1%
- Senegal - 1%
- Algeria - 0%
- Iran - 0%
- Paraguay - 0%
- Australia - 0%
- USA - 0%
- Canada - 0%
- Egypt - 0%
- Mexico - 0%
- Turkey - 0%
- Ivory Coast - 0%
- Scotland - 0%
- Czech Republic - 0%
- Uzbekistan - 0%
- DR Congo - 0%
- Tunisia - 0%
- Sweden - 0%
- South Korea - 0%
- South Africa - 0%
- Iraq - 0%
- Curaçao - 0%
- Haiti - 0%
- Ghana - 0%
- Bosnia-Hz. - 0%
- New Zealand - 0%
- Cape Verde - 0%
- Qatar - 0%
- Jordan - 0%
- Saudi Arabia - 0%
- Panama - 0%
Who are the favourites to win the World Cup?
The bookies in the United Kingdom strongly disagree with Reade's simulation, with Argentina only rated as the sixth favourites to win at 9/1.
Instead, European Champions Spain are the favourites to triumph in the New Jersey final on July 19 and win yet another trophy.
They are a hair ahead of France in the odds, with England typically being rated third favourite at 13/2.
Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal and Brazil round out the top six, while odds on Scotland can be found as high as 300/1.
How much does it cost to attend the World Cup?
Football fans wanting to watch the games in person better have deep pockets. Here’s what flights, accommodation, tickets and food and drink will cost England supporters:
Getting there
If you fancied catching England’s opening game against Croatia next Wednesday (17 June), a return flight from London to Dallas, Texas would set you back around £700, according to Skyscanner.
The second and third games are a little cheaper to get to - £400 if you want to watch the Three Lions go up against Ghana in Boston on 23 June, and £500 to see them play Panama in New York on 27 June.
But now you need somewhere to stay.
Hotel costs
NBC has crunched the numbers on hotels, looking at the average for the five cheapest hotels within 15 miles of the station as of late last month.
In Atlanta for the opening match, the average hotel room is £350 for two nights, and that’s on the cheap side.
A hotel to watch the second game in the group stages in Boston will cost £725, and the third in New York will be £485.
Now to get your ticket for the game…
Ticket prices
Tickets for the opening game against Croatia are still available and going from £430, via Seatpick.
England vs Ghana will set you back at least £330, and the match against Panama £250.
I bet all that number crunching has made you thirsty…
Food and drink prices at the World Cup
Unlike in the UK, football fans are allowed to drink in the stands in the US, Canada and Mexico - if they’re made of money, that is.
Prices at a warm-up match between England and New Zealand at the Raymond James stadium in Tampa, Florida on Saturday (6 June) might give an indication of what to expect in the World Cup proper, which is bad news for fans.
A large beer was advertised at $18.75 (£13.99), while just a bottle of water was priced at $7.50 (£5.60).
Meanwhile, according to Football Ground Guide, a basic meal and a beer will set you back $23.88 (£17.83) at the AT&T Stadium in Dallas, where England’s first game will take place.
For England’s second game at the Boston Stadium (also known as the Gillette Stadium), according to Football 2026 hot dogs are going from £6.30, while burgers will set you back £10.45.
Meanwhile, a basic meal and a beer at the MetLife stadium for England’s match against Panama will cost you £24.87.
Daniel Murphy