Current projection for Nigel Farage winning by-election after quitting as MP

The first projections for Nigel Farage's chances of winning back the Clacton seat he just resigned from have been released.

Under major pressure over gifts of millions of pounds he'd received, the Reform UK leader announced today (7 July) that he would be resigning his seat in order to force an election in Clacton, and he would stand as a candidate.

He said: "I thought about it hard and I have decided today I will resign as a member of parliament for Clacton-on-Sea, thereby forcing a by-election, which should happen, I hope, in short order.

"Now I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions. This will be a people versus the establishment by-election.

"It’s a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment, to frankly tell them where to go, and that is why I will be putting my name forward to stand in this byelection. I will fight to win."

Current projections for the Clacton election

According to Nowcast and their latest projections this election won't really need Farage to put up much of a fight, as they have his Reform party on a 100 percent chance of winning the constituency.

Their projections have Clacton down as a safe seat for Reform which according to their model is guaranteed to go Farage's way if it were put to a vote at the moment.

As they see it, Reform would actually increase their share of the vote at another election and hoover up 48.5 percent of the votes in Clacton.

They reckon second place would go to the Conservatives on 19.2 percent, and Restore Britain which splintered off from Reform last year is tipped to take 12 percent of the votes.

However, that's where things stand at the moment and in the time between now and the actual by-election much could change, it would be expected that some parties would throw everything they had at Farage's seat in order to deny him a return to parliament.

For now the current projection suggests this would be a victory lap for Farage that barely even resembles a contest, whether the other parties can change that and make a dent in his support remains to be seen.

Current Nowcast Projection for Clacton:

➡️ RFM: 48.5% (+2.3)
🌳 CON: 19.2% (-8.7)
◼️ RES: 12.0% (New)
🌍 GRN: 8.2% (+4.0)
🌹 LAB: 6.2% (-10.0)
🔶 LDM: 4.6% (+0.2) https://t.co/F6REwvsOBj pic.twitter.com/sqBZiVpXTz

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) July 7, 2026

The cost of a by-election

It does cost quite a bit of taxpayer's money to put on an election.

Staff need to be hired, polling stations must be secured and there's a whole network of people to transport the ballot papers to be counted.

Exactly how much this all costs varies a little bit between constituencies, but back in 2016 it was revealed that the average cost of a by-election to the public purse was £228,964, and in the decade since then inflation has likely increased that figure.

Reform have offered to pay the cost of the by-election, with Farage saying: "I have spoken to the CEO of Tendring District Council.

“Reform has offered to cover the cost of the by-election. I will be writing to Rachel Reeves later today with the same message.

“Given that we asked for this by-election in the first place, it’s only right that we pay for it.”

Claims of sleaze made against Farage

There has been scrutiny on Farage over a gift of £5 million he received from political donor Christopher Harborne, and claims made by an investigation from the Sunday Times that George Cottrell provided funding for security and staffing in the year before Farage was elected in the Clacton seat.

Farage has insisted he's 'done nothing wrong', and parliamentary investigations into his conduct are on hold now he's resigned as an MP, but they could resume if he's voted back in and if he's found to have acted improperly he could lose his seat once more, triggering another by-election.

A spokesperson for incoming prime minister Andy Burnham described Farage's decision to resign and trigger a by-election 'a gimmick designed to distract from serious allegations' about his funds.

Departing prime minister Sir Keir Starmer called it a 'desperate stunt'.

He said: “It’s obvious why he is doing it. He is up to his neck in sleaze.

“Politics should be about improving the lives of millions of people, not about personal gain, not about hiding dodgy donations, and I think the public will see this for exactly what it is.”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Farage of throwing a 'hissy fit', saying that rather than calling his own election now he should wait and see if there's' a by-election if the investigation finds him guilty'.