People are just discovering how ‘30% chance of rain’ is calculated on weather apps

Ever got the Weather app on your phone to check the forecast to be greeted with some information concerning the expected percentage chance of rain?

Well, it seems many of us have been understanding the data all wrong as people are only just discovering how a '30 percent chance of rain' is calculated on weather apps

Now, if that's news to you - not to worry as you are far from alone.

sarayut Thaneerat / Getty Images

For a long time, there's been a tonne of confusion about what the percentage chance of rain actually means.

One X user claimed: "Yeah when the weather says that there's a 30 percent chance of rain it means there's a 100 percent chance of rain in that area, but that it will only rain on 30 percent of that area.

"I only learned that about a year ago myself, not like anyone tells you that unless you Google it."

TV personality Scarlett Moffatt was also under this impression.

The 32-year-old previously took to TikTok, saying: "So all this time that I've like been caught in the rain and people are like, 'Why haven't you brought a jacket?' and stuff like that...

"It's because I've just found out that on the weather app, when it says '30 percent rain', I thought that meant '30 percent chance of rain'.

"It doesn't mean that, it means that 30 percent of your area will be covered in rain."

Well, sorry to break it to you guys, but that's totally wrong.

Karl Hendon / Getty Images

The Met Office were quick to set the record straight and put all the speculation to bed once and for all with weatherman Alex Deakin adding his expertise into the matter.

He said: "Certainly for the Met Office app, the percentage of rain means the chance of rain at that time for that location.

"So 60 percent means a 60 percent chance of rain, 40 percent chance of dry.

"There are different ways of expressing percentages and in the USA they do use the area one, but generally not here in the UK.

"So if you've got the Met Office app, that's one less thing to worry about; mind unblown."

The Met Office has also broken it down on its website too, stating: "In weather forecasting, suppose the Met Office says that the probability of rain tomorrow in your region is 80 percent.

"They aren't saying that it will rain in 80 percent of the land area of your region, and not rain in the other 20 percent. Nor are they saying it will rain for 80 percent of the time.

"What they are saying is there is an 80 percent chance of rain occurring at any one place in the region, such as in your garden."

Well, there you have it.

Guess you really do learn something new every day.

Topics: Weather, Weird, Twitter, Social Media, Viral

Rhiannon Ingle

Rhiannon Ingle is a Journalist at LADbible Group. She graduated from the University of Manchester in 2021 in English Literature. Alongside her studies, she was the Lifestyle Editor of The Mancunian, the largest student newspaper in the United Kingdom. Her favourite topics to write about include sex and relationships, bizarre lifestyle trends and all things travel.