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People are just discovering how ‘30% chance of rain’ is calculated on weather apps

Home> News> UK News> Weather

Published 13:04 29 Aug 2023 GMT+1

People are just discovering how ‘30% chance of rain’ is calculated on weather apps

The internet was left totally baffled after finding out the real meaning

Rhiannon Ingle

Rhiannon Ingle

Ever got the Weather app on your phone to check the forecast to be greeted with some information concerning the expected percentage chance of rain?

Well, it seems many of us have been understanding the data all wrong as people are only just discovering how a '30 percent chance of rain' is calculated on weather apps

Now, if that's news to you - not to worry as you are far from alone.

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People are baffled to find out the true meaning of what '30% chance of rain' is.
sarayut Thaneerat / Getty Images

For a long time, there's been a tonne of confusion about what the percentage chance of rain actually means.

One X user claimed: "Yeah when the weather says that there's a 30 percent chance of rain it means there's a 100 percent chance of rain in that area, but that it will only rain on 30 percent of that area.

"I only learned that about a year ago myself, not like anyone tells you that unless you Google it."

TV personality Scarlett Moffatt was also under this impression.

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The 32-year-old previously took to TikTok, saying: "So all this time that I've like been caught in the rain and people are like, 'Why haven't you brought a jacket?' and stuff like that...

"It's because I've just found out that on the weather app, when it says '30 percent rain', I thought that meant '30 percent chance of rain'.

"It doesn't mean that, it means that 30 percent of your area will be covered in rain."

Well, sorry to break it to you guys, but that's totally wrong.

Even the Met Office has got involved to try and explain what the percentages actually mean.
Karl Hendon / Getty Images

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The Met Office were quick to set the record straight and put all the speculation to bed once and for all with weatherman Alex Deakin adding his expertise into the matter.

He said: "Certainly for the Met Office app, the percentage of rain means the chance of rain at that time for that location.

"So 60 percent means a 60 percent chance of rain, 40 percent chance of dry.

"There are different ways of expressing percentages and in the USA they do use the area one, but generally not here in the UK.

"So if you've got the Met Office app, that's one less thing to worry about; mind unblown."

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The Met Office has also broken it down on its website too, stating: "In weather forecasting, suppose the Met Office says that the probability of rain tomorrow in your region is 80 percent.

"They aren't saying that it will rain in 80 percent of the land area of your region, and not rain in the other 20 percent. Nor are they saying it will rain for 80 percent of the time.

"What they are saying is there is an 80 percent chance of rain occurring at any one place in the region, such as in your garden."

Well, there you have it.

Guess you really do learn something new every day.

Featured Image Credit: Silas Stein/picture alliance/Sarayut Thaneerat/Getty Images

Topics: Weather, Weird, Twitter, Social Media, Viral

Rhiannon Ingle
Rhiannon Ingle

Rhiannon Ingle is a Senior Journalist at Tyla, specialising in TV, film, travel, and culture. A graduate of the University of Manchester with a degree in English Literature, she honed her editorial skills as the Lifestyle Editor of The Mancunian, the UK’s largest student newspaper. With a keen eye for storytelling, Rhiannon brings fresh perspectives to her writing, blending critical insight with an engaging style. Her work captures the intersection of entertainment and real-world experiences.

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