Climate expert raises alarm over developing ‘super’ El Niño with 83% chance of historic event

Weather and climate scientist Daniel Swain has said he's now 'officially concerned' over the impacts of the upcoming El Niño as he discussed the chances of a 'wet California winter'.

That would likely cause flooding and mudslides, while storms fuelled by the El Niño are already having an impact and resulted in some marine life showing up in parts of the Pacific Ocean where they wouldn't normally be seen.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated their assessments today (8 October) and warned that the chance of a very strong El Niño more powerful than any since records began in 1950 had increased from last month's prediction of 75 percent to 83 percent.

Various expert voices have sounded the warning over what the El Niño and its consequences will have on the world, and Swain is one of those who has said he's now very worried about what's going on.

Laying out his concerns on social media, Swain said he saw 'the warning lights are flashing'.

He wrote: "This extreme El Niño event will have widespread global impacts. We've never seen an event this big before in the context of our rapidly warming climate. Expect some surprises.

"I realize that I am going out on a limb a bit in this thread, and in my public communications, surrounding this year's El Niño event. I'm fortunate enough to have built up a high level of community-level trust over the years, and I try hard to stay grounded and accessible.

"I've always emphasized that I would clearly articulate genuinely serious weather & climate concerns, if and when they ever emerged.

"I've only done so a few times in 20 years--most recently in the days leading up to the Los Angeles wildfire disasters of January 2025.

"Based on what I am seeing now, I am officially concerned. And I'm not the only one: One federal scientist recently reflected that in their view we've entered 'If you see something, say something' territory.

"I fully agree, and this month's data provides further evidence."

He's far from the only expert who has spoken about the dangers posed to people.

MyRadar senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci previously told LADbible there would be an 'extremifying of both drought and flooding' from the El Niño, and the worst hit communities would be those on the Pacific which relied on the ocean.

He said it was 're-scrambling the whole world's weather patterns' and was triggering 'a very prominent Pacific hurricane season'.

"Areas that get heavy rainfall are going to, in some cases, get more," he warned.

"Other places will see a significant drought. So like in Australia, for example, or Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, that area, likely to see drought."