Super El Niño to cause ‘pandemic-scale’ mortality with 500,000 deaths in 2027 alone

Scientists have warned that heat from the upcoming Super El Niño is likely to cause almost half a million deaths in the coming months, and that doesn't even account for the possibility of diseases that could spread because of it.

Colin J. Carlson, planetary epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public health, has called on the World Health Organisation (WHO) to declare it a public health emergency of international concern.

There have been a dozen of these declared in the past, all of them infectious disease outbreaks, but Carlson and his colleague Christopher Callahan, assistant professor at Indiana University's O'Neill School of Public & Environmental Affairs, believe the Super El Niño qualifies.

They have been warning that a 'pandemic-scale mortality' is coming with hundreds of thousands of deaths in the worst affected areas, pointing towards research from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab which is predicting around 451,000 heat deaths.

The scientists said that over the years climate change 'has probably been responsible for several million deaths'.

Researchers have been modelling which countries will be hardest hit (Climate Impact Lab)

Where the Super El Niño will hit hardest

"It is likely that more people will die in the next year than in the 2009 influenza A / H1N1 pandemic and several other PHEIC-level events since, making El Niño an emergency in its own right," they warned.

This prediction is not counting potential excess deaths from the further spread of disease that may be boosted by hotter conditions of the Super El Niño.

In Africa, Nigeria is predicted to be the worst hit with an estimated 31,400 more deaths expected, and a further 17,500 in Sudan.

Between the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia predictions warn of 19,400 additional deaths, and another 19,300 in Indonesia.

India is predicted to lose 15,800 more people and Brazil will be worst impacted in South America with predictions claiming they'll lose 13,300 people.

Researchers have been warning that the first signs of the Super El Niño are already here, with oceanic temperatures predicted to be highest in November and December.

The damage done is expected to be catastrophic (LADbible)

"We build our infrastructure to what's most common for us"

Matthew Cappucci, senior meteorologist at MyRadar, told LADbible that there would be winners and losers from the Super El Niño, with the hardest hit places on the planet in for a serious amount of pain.

He explained that the Super El Niño would be punishing for the Pacific and countries that were deeply connected to it, since that's where it originated, but conversely countries which depended on the Atlantic Ocean more could see a reduction in hurricanes.

For the other parts of the world they could expect 'an extremifying of both drought and flooding', which was a problem because the more extreme swings in weather would be more than many areas could bear.

He pointed out that most places build for the conditions they typically have, so when an extreme weather event like an El Niño comes along it'll do significant damage.

Noting that 'adaptation is going to be tough for people', Cappucci made it clear affected areas would be in for a difficult time.