'Super El Nino' is forming in the Pacific Ocean that will have devastating global consequences

Scientists say the powerful 'super El Niño' is developing in the Pacific Ocean could lead to the warmest year on record in 2027.

As well as record global temperatures, the strong version of the natural climate pattern may lead to severe weather, food shortages, and major humanitarian problems around the world.

Recent data shows parts of the Pacific are already about 0.5°C hotter than average, and forecasters expect temperatures to keep rising over the coming months.

Weather agencies including NOAA in the US, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, and the European weather centre all believe there is a strong chance the event will become very powerful by the end of the year.

"El Niño refers to a sustained period of warmer‑than‑average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean," the Met Office explains.

Scientists warn that a 'super El Niño' could raise the Earth’s average temperature by about 0.2°C (Mehmet Yaren Bozgun/Anadolu via Getty Images)

"It forms part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which alternates between warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases."

Climate is being 'shaped by extremes'

"April 2026 adds to the clear signal of sustained global warmth," Samantha Burgess, the strategic lead for climate at the Copernicus Climate Change Service, added.

"Sea surface temperatures were near record levels with widespread marine heatwaves, Arctic sea ice remained well below average, and Europe saw sharp contrasts in temperature and rainfall; all hallmarks of a climate increasingly shaped by extremes."

Experts say super El Niño events can trigger:

• Extreme global heat
• Flooding in some regions
• Droughts and wildfires in others
• Crop failures and food shortages
• Coral bleaching and damage to fisheries

Some forecast models suggest Pacific temperatures could even approach 3°C above normal (Getty Stock Images)

'The strongest El Niño event this so far century'

The Met Office has warned this could cause 'some of the most impactful episodes in recent decades'.

“Other organisations around the world have other definitions and thresholds for what constitutes El Niño conditions, but this will be such a significant event, if it happens, that it will be above all of those thresholds and there will be no doubt that we’re in an El Niño,” said Grahame Madge, climate science communicator at the Met Office.

“A ‘super’ El Niño is not a term we subscribe to, but it does underpin the fact that this is likely to be a significant event.

“Scientists are telling us that this could be the strongest El Niño event this so far century, comparable to the notable El Niño event in 1998.”

Link to climate change

While many of the warmest years on record are El Niño events, this warming effect coincides with the trend driven by human‑induced climate change.

Grahame added: “Almost 20 years later, background temperatures have continued to increase as a result of human-induced climate change. In 2023 we had the first year in which global temperatures were 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, we’ve since had two more years in which we’ve hit those levels. With an El Niño it’s likely that next year will be a year above 1.5°C when compared with pre-industrial levels.”