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Scientists Share What Age We Could Be Living To By The Year 2100

Rebecca Shepherd


Scientists Share What Age We Could Be Living To By The Year 2100

A conversation about death isn't exactly appealing at any point - never mind on a Sunday, just before the working week is set to begin.

But we may as well ask anyway. What's a good age to pop your clogs?

With the average life expectancy in the UK being 81 years, many of us would probably agree upon that as a good innings, and articles have been written about 75 being the ideal age to live a 'complete life'.

So what if we told you that research has suggested that, by the year 2100, people could be living past the age of 120? Would that be something you'd even want to do?

This could be the way to go if you want to live to 120. Credit: PA
This could be the way to go if you want to live to 120. Credit: PA

Well, apparently the population is expected to live much longer by that period, due to improved access to food and healthcare.

A study, carried out by Demographic Research, sought to quantify the probability that any person attains various extreme ages, such as those above 120, by the year 2100.

The researchers analysed supercentenarians (people over the age of 110) but they extended the forecasting window and used Bayesian population projections, as well as incorporating the most recent data from the International Database on Longevity (IDL) to obtain unconditional estimates of the maximum reported age at death (MRAD) this century.

Credit: PA
Credit: PA

The study claims: "We find that the exponential survival model for supercentenarians is consistent with the most recent IDL data and that projections of the population aged 110-114 through 2080 are sensible.

"We integrate over the posterior distributions of the exponential model parameter and uncertainty in the supercentenarian population projections to estimate an unconditional distribution of MRAD by 2100."

It goes on to state: "Based on the Bayesian analysis, there is a greater than 99% probability that the current MRAD of 122 will be broken by 2100.

"We estimate the probabilities that a person lives to at least age 126, 128, or 130 this century, as 89%, 44%, and 13%, respectively."

Credit: PA
Credit: PA

So, to clarify, that's a 13% chance of living to the age of 130.

Lead author Michael Pearce said: "People are fascinated by the extremes of humanity, whether it's going to the moon, how fast someone can run in the Olympics, or even how long someone can live.

"With this work, we quantify how likely we believe it is that some individual will reach various extreme ages this century."

Featured Image Credit: PA

Topics: News, Interesting, Health

Rebecca Shepherd
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