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Scientist issues NASA major warning in worrying update on asteroid with chance of hitting Earth in seven years

Home> News> Science

Updated 11:37 21 Feb 2025 GMTPublished 19:35 12 Feb 2025 GMT

Scientist issues NASA major warning in worrying update on asteroid with chance of hitting Earth in seven years

Could we be about to live out the plot of Don't Look Up in real time?

Brenna Cooper

Brenna Cooper

A scientist has shared his thoughts on the 'city-destroying' asteroid which has a chance of colliding with Earth.

In case you've missed it, there's an asteroid hurtling through space that could very well end up smashing into our planet within the next eight years. Labelled 2024 YR4, the rogue chunk of rock is currently travelling away from us, after passing by at a distance of 828,800 kilometres on Christmas Day 2024, however, it will be back.

And this time there's a chance of it colliding with Earth.

What are the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth?

2024 YR4 is currently forecasted to begin making its Earth-bound approach in late 2028, with current estimates penciling in 2032 as a day in which it could hypothetically make impact.

The current line from NASA officials is that they are monitoring YR4 as an object of interest, but don't start panicking just yet, as the asteroid currently has a 2.3% chance of crashing into us, according to forecasts made this month.

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Which means there's a 97.7% chance that we're not on track to live out the plot of an apocalyptic disaster film just yet — hooray!

However, the pessimists - or pragmatists - among us will likely be pointing out that a slight chance of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth doesn't mean that we're fully in the clear.

One person to share this point of view is volcanologist Dr Robin George Andrews, who recently pointed out that we only have eight years to come up with a plan for the worst case scenario.

Hopefully this scenario is not on the cards for planet Earth (Getty Stock Images)
Hopefully this scenario is not on the cards for planet Earth (Getty Stock Images)

"You need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid deflection mission," he recently pointed out on X, adding: "We have less than eight years to potentially deal with it, if needed."

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He added: "But we don't have much time, and we don't have enough info about this rapidly fading asteroid to properly inform our planetary defence decisions yet."

What would happen if asteroid 2024 YR4 hits Earth?

Once again, it's worth reminding you that we're not staring directly into the possibility of a dinosaurs 2.0 event should YR4 end up smashing into the planet.

Astronomers believe the asteroid is around 40m to 100m wide, with NASA stating that damage would be 'localised' instead of a mass extinction event.

That being said, things wouldn't look too good if YR4 ended up landing on top of your house - or even city for that matter - with space consultant Bill Harwood telling CBS that it would be 'truly catastrophic' for YR4 to land in a densely populated area.

Featured Image Credit: (Getty Stock Images)

Topics: NASA, Science, Space, World News, 2024 YR4

Brenna Cooper
Brenna Cooper

Brenna Cooper is a journalist at LADbible. She graduated from the University of Sheffield with a degree in History, followed by an NCTJ accredited masters in Journalism. She began her career as a freelance writer for Digital Spy, where she wrote about all things TV, film and showbiz. Her favourite topics to cover are music, travel and any bizarre pop culture.

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@_brencoco

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