Expert issues stark warning over ‘profound implications’ of Iran war that could trigger global recession

BlackRock boss Larry Fink has warned that if the Iran war pushes the price of a barrel of oil to $150 it'll trigger a global recession, which is the last thing we need.

Fink is an expert insofar as he's the head of BlackRock, the world's largest asset managing company which controls assets worth $14 trillion, and if someone with that large a pile of money is getting worried it's cause for concern.

Speaking to the BBC, he said he saw the Iran war going one of two ways with the first being that the Middle Eastern country could be brought back into the international community and oil prices dropping back to pre-war levels.

However, the other outcome was 'a probably stark and steep recession' fuelled by the lack of stability in the area where he predicted a barrel of oil would cost over $100 for 'years' and would creep 'closer to $150' which would have 'profound implications in the economy'.

Higher oil prices make pretty much everything more expensive and people all over the world are already starting to see the financial impact of the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran.

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supply flows, has been disrupted as a result of the war (Handout / ROYAL THAI NAVY / AFP via Getty Images)

Fink's warning of a global recession follows the alarm being raised by Richard Bookstaber, who predicted the 2008 financial crash, as he laid out four areas where he thought worse signs were showing.

It is truly no fun at all living through several once-in-a-lifetime financial disasters.

As for the global oil price Fink warned about, it has jumped up and down over the past few years.

Early on in the pandemic in April 2020 it dropped to below $20 a barrel, a little over two years later it was $114 a barrel following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Since then the price has largely trended downwards and at the end of 2025 it was around $60 for a barrel of oil.

In the first months of 2026 it climbed back above $100 following the war with Iran, a nation with a lot of oil and control over the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the world's oil and natural gas supply flows.

It has since pinged around as US President Donald Trump claimed he was working on a peace deal with Iran, with Iranian officials contradicting his claims.

Higher oil prices mean higher costs for pretty much everything, and Fink predicted a global recession if they hit $150 a barrel (Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

According to the BBC it just recently dropped back down below $100 after Trump said peace negotiations were progressing and Iran said 'non-hostile' ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz without being attacked.

Trump claiming he's working on peace with the country he started a war with lowers the price, Iran contradicting him and saying those talks haven't actually taken place raises it again.

While Trump claims peace negotiations are happening, with reports of a 15 point plan outlining what the Americans want, the US is also sending more troops to the region.

Iran has warned they've been training for this for years, with one of their admirals telling US soldiers to 'come closer'.

If nothing else it's a sign that the chaos and disaster of war has far reaching consequences.