El Niño will make 2027 even hotter than this year, causing havoc in US
The world is now officially getting an El Niño, a weather event which occurs when ocean temperatures rise by just a little bit with catastrophic and wide-reaching results.
Last week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that conditions in the Pacific Ocean were set for an El Niño, and they estimated a 63 percent chance that temperature increases would exceed averages by 2°C.
That's 'super' El Niño territory, meaning the destructive capability was going to be even stronger, and while each of the dramatic weather events had their own particular variation the stronger the El Niño the more damage you could typically expect.
LADbible spoke to Chad Merrill, Senior Meteorologist at at AccuWeather, who explained that the impact of the El Niño would carry on into 2027 and mean we should prepare for an even hotter year.
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That's a major cause for concern when 2026 is already being predicted to be the hottest year on record.
Expect 2027 to be hotter than this year
It's hot enough this summer what with a series of heatwaves and scorching conditions, but it could be even worse next year.
Merrill explained: "With this likely strong El Niño that's coming, you tend to have the warmest temperatures globally following' the year in which that El Niño develops.
"So with the very strong El Niño taking place late this year, we'll probably see the global temperatures impacted in 2027.
"2027 will likely end up a warmer year on average across the globe than 2026 will be."
The senior meteorologist added that people should beware of 'weather whiplash' as he explained that the El Niño was likely to push conditions to more extreme places.
He warned that for the US that meant a mixture of storms and droughts which could flood some areas and dry out others.
Merrill said this weather 'could be a concern for gardeners and farmers' as there could also be 'cold snaps' in spring which punished those who tried growing things early on.
A La Niña may follow the El Niño
With the El Niño set to impact worldwide weather from here through to 2027 you might hope that was the end of it, but the meteorologist warned that an El Niño could sometimes trigger a La Niña.
A La Niña produces somewhat opposite weather impacts to an El Niño, as they lead to cooling that triggers droughts, rains and flooding, so the consequences are still bad and it could be a while before the weather gets back to something we'd recognise as normal.
"I think there'll be multiple strong El Niños going forward," Merrill warned of the weather to come.
"Typically, after a strong to very strong El Niño the following year goes back to a neutral El Niño or La Niña. Sometimes you can flip from one extreme to another and then La Niñas have been a little bit more prevalent than El Ninos.
"I think that going forward there will be episodes where we get moderate to very strong El Niños, coupled with some La Niñas similar to how we have seen in the past. I think that cycle will likely continue."
He explained that a La Niña 'tend to peak early in the winter as well', and that 'you can get several consecutive La Niñas in a row and then a neutral El Niño'.
Researchers at Pusan National University in South Korea have been warning that both El Niños and La Niñas are likely to get stronger in the future, which chimes with what Merrill is saying, and there will be stronger impacts on Europe too.
Climate physicist Axel Timmermann said: "Our latest computer model simulations predict a shift to more regular and much stronger El Niño-La Niña extremes, as well as an intensification of ENSO impacts on remote regions, in particular Europe."
Floods and droughts would become more common on the European continent as the impact of El Niños and La Niñas affect something called the North Atlantic oscillation.
What the US can expect
With a long coastline on the Pacific Ocean the US is one of the countries that will be most affected by an El Niño, and Merrill spelled out clearly how he thinks things will play out.
"First of all, we'll have a large number of East Pacific tropical systems. And because of that, in the warm waters between Hawaii and off the Southern California coast there's a greater potential for a tropical storm," he explained.
"Potentially a hurricane to at least bring a lot of rain into Southern California in the southwest later this summer."
He said that would lead to an increased flooding risk there, which might alleviate the droughts somewhat, and when the warmer waters move on that'll 'produce thunderstorms that have a lot of lightning but not so much rain' which can lead to wildfires.
Later on there'd be heavier rainfall and Merrill predicted 'issues of flash flooding across the southwest', while he warned that 'the western part of the United States is vulnerable to mudslides'.
As for the rest of the US, he mentioned 'drought and wildfire concerns across the northwestern US and the northern Rockies', and how America's corn belt 'really needs the moisture' in July.
He said 'multiple thunderstorm clusters' were likely to move through and bring rain that could help with the drought that was 'developing across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin'.
The meteorologist said 'El Niño's impacts are going to be maximized once we get into the fall and the winter season', saying that typically meant 'a lot of rain across the southern part of the United States in the winter time'.
How does an El Niño year happen?
It all starts with something called trade winds, which are permanent winds around the equator which usually blow from east to west. So in the equatorial Pacific, they blow from the Americas towards Australia and New Zealand.
As the wind blows the water east, it is warmed by the sun, so by the time it gets to the other side of the Pacific, the warm water causes hot air to rise, leading to warm, wet and unsettled weather. Meanwhile, colder water from deeper in the ocean rises in the east to replace the water blown west.
But during El Niño years, this gets disrupted.
When trade winds are weakened or even reversed, the temperature difference between the east and west is cancelled out, and usually cold parts of the ocean warm up.
Rainfall and wind patterns change across the equatorial Pacific, which has a knock-on effect around the world.
Joe Harker