Met Office issues major ‘Super El Niño’ update with catastrophic global consequences
The Met Office has issued an update on the 'Super El Niño' weather event which will have catastrophic consequences across the globe.
It is a naturally occurring climate pattern which consists of unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
An El Niño is actually declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average.
But this has major effects around the world. It impacts global rainfall patterns and average temperatures, which also heightens the risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and Australia.
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In areas in north-western Europe, including the UK, it will also mean the chance of wetter and stormier conditions in autumn and winter, which follow on from the driest and hottest July on record that saw many areas plunged into drought, forecasters said.
But it seems there is little chance of next summer being any cooler as El Niño events also drive an increase in global average temperature, with 2027 forecast to be the warmest year on record.
Although a 'super' El Niño is not an official scientific category, it is a term sometimes used in the media to describe a particularly strong El Niño event, the Met Office previously told LADbible.
'An unprecedented El Nino event'
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the climate service explained: “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.”
“A typical El Nino leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between one to 2C, with 2C being a really big event.
“This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences.”
Meanwhile Met Office Science Fellow Dr Nick Dunstone said: “During large El Nino events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Nino.
“Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the pre-industrial period”.
Global consequences of El Nino
Experts say super El Niño events can trigger not only extreme global heat and flooding, but droughts and wildfires, coral bleaching and damage to fisheries as well as crop failures and potential food shortages.
The unprecedented string of heatwaves and lack of rainfall in recent months has brought the driest July in 190 years and has pushed almost three-quarters of England and all of Wales into drought, putting severe pressure on the water system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.
Following an emergency meeting to discuss the heatwave last week, Prime Minister Andy Burnham warned: “We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Nino and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra.”
Parts of the country were hit by heavier showers on Wednesday and Thursday (19 and 20 August) with the north-west of England seeing the wettest conditions in the last 24 hours.
The sudden heavy rainfall this week also sparked fears of flash flooding as the water has been hitting parched, dry, hard ground.
But forecasters and officials warned it could take months of sustained rainfall before rivers, reservoirs and groundwaters are completely replenished, which is when a drought is officially over.
The National Drought Group, which brings together the Met Office, regulators, government, water companies, farmers, scientists and conservation organisations several times a year, said this week’s rainfall and cooler temperatures will not make any significant impact on current water scarcity.
It also warned drought conditions could persist into the new year as, despite El Niño, current forecasts do not suggest this autumn will have the amount of rainfall required to drive recovery before December.
The UK’s fifth heatwave earlier this month saw the hottest day of the year recorded in Kew Gardens, London, on August 13 when temperatures reached 38.1C.
August 14 was provisionally a record-breaking 10th day in 2026 where temperatures have exceeded 35C or more, according to the Met Office.
The intense heat has also made 2026 the first year on record to see three separate days where temperatures reached the 37C threshold.
Elsewhere, wildfires have ravaged parts of the UK, including in the West Midlands, where a blaze in Stourbridge destroyed 19 homes.
How does an El Niño year happen?
It all starts with something called trade winds, which are permanent winds around the equator which usually blow from east to west. So in the equatorial Pacific, they blow from the Americas towards Australia and New Zealand.
As the wind blows the water east, it is warmed by the sun, so by the time it gets to the other side of the Pacific, the warm water causes hot air to rise, leading to warm, wet and unsettled weather. Meanwhile, colder water from deeper in the ocean rises in the east to replace the water blown west.
But during El Niño years, this gets disrupted.
When trade winds are weakened or even reversed, the temperature difference between the east and west is cancelled out, and usually cold parts of the ocean warm up.
Rainfall and wind patterns change across the equatorial Pacific, which has a knock-on effect around the world.
Topics: Weather, El Niño, World News, UK News
James Holt