Potential fuel shortages could put an end to countless holidays this summer, as the war between the US and Iran continues, it's been warned.
You may have noticed that there have been some words of warning over the supply of jet fuel to Europe due to the conflict in the Middle East, and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
About 20 percent of the world's supply of oil and gas flows through there, so any disruption to it is going to have wide-reaching effects on price and supply, and warnings that there's only a few weeks of jet fuel supply left would mean bad things for people's summer holidays.
And one aviation expert says Brits could have a big - and pretty expensive - decision to make.
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But while the UK was adapting to the situation, buying more fuel from the US to make up for a disruption in supply, Ivan Stevenson, associate professor in aviation management at Coventry University, says he's 'cautiously concerned' about what it means for many package holidays coming up.
Airlines could consolidate flights
One of the things Professor Stevenson said he expected airlines wanting to save fuel would 'start to combine flights', so there'd be fewer trips and thus fewer fuel-guzzling flights but they would be keeping routes open over the summer holidays.
Say, for sake of argument, an airline was running six flights a day to a popular destination, that might become four flights to compensate for a lack of supply.
“It's in an airline's interest to cancel a flight as soon as it becomes aware that that flight may not be viable for one reason or another," the aviation expert told LADbible.
“The longer that they give a customer an opportunity to kind of rebook the better."
While that means there will be flights going to and from popular holiday destinations, there'll be fewer seats up for grabs and the people who've already booked their tickets have already called dibs.
He said: "What they would probably do at a certain point in the booking cycle is they'll close out the bookings for some of those flights and they'll combine them.
"That will reduce the demand for fuel... and you're still able to deliver to the customers that have already booked.”
Package holiday bookers have 'make a decision'
That's the deal for people who booked their flights with the airlines, but if you've booked a package holiday then there's another prong to contend with.
Ivan said that in some cases if people get shuffled around on flights that are consolidated 'they may even find there is a possibility it might get moved by a day or so'.
That's bad news for people on package holidays, who need their flights to line up with the rest of their holiday booking, and Professor Stevenson said it'd be decision time if some holidaymakers were willing to lose a day of their holiday.
He said: “If what they're offering you is a substantive change to what you originally booked, you've got to make a decision as to whether you want to accept that or not.
“It might be a case of accepting it or not having a holiday."
If you booked to fly out on Monday for your package holiday and the airline shuffles you onto their earliest Tuesday flight you might no longer want to go on that holiday if you're not getting one of the days you paid for.
For those who'd want compensation in such a situation, the later they tell you then 'the less rights they have'.
“If you're losing a days holiday, there would need to be something to compensate," he said, and on the bright side it's definitely in the interest of the holiday companies for things to go your way as they won't want to lose your money and pay compensation.
Domestic flights would be the first to go
Since summer holiday flights are the big money makers for airlines, Ivan said that the first flights that'd be 'trimmed' are the shorter, domestic ones, especially if there are alternative forms of transportation.
He said: “I will say domestic flights would likely be cut first. They will be the first to go, flights between London and Manchester, you can supplement that by rail.
“London and Edinburgh, Glasgow are similar so domestic flights generally will be the first to go because airlines will keep fuel for holiday flights.
“Holiday flights in the summer at peak pricing, and ancillary revenue generation on baggage etc, it's where airlines do make money.”
So it's really in the interest of the airlines and holiday companies to make sure your holiday goes ahead, but there's a danger people on package holidays will have a choice to make.
Joe Harker